(This article was written before the election day and may contain assumptions and events that already happened before the election.)

With the 2020 presidential election just around the corner, America is buzzing with the anticipation of who the next president might be. Right after the first TV debate with his rival Joe Biden, President Donald Trump was infected with the COVID-19 virus, which became the black swan event of his reelection campaign. The news of his Coronavirus diagnosis might have come as bad news to Trump himself as it is hard to say “it’s under control” when one falls victim to it. He had been downplaying the opinion of his being irresponsible for stopping the spread of the virus and instead focusing only on economic recovery and law enforcement. As soon as Trump’s quarantine began, experts predicted Biden’s approval ratings would go up as a result. Compared to the President, Biden, always wearing masks during his election campaign, even said “wearing masks is more important than being a tough guy” while he was delivering a speech in the battleground state of Michigan. Spending three days in treatment in a military hospital, Trump returned to the White House after being tested negative for the virus to restart his reelection campaign. Did the infection affect his numbers? According to the latest poll by Real Clear Politics, Biden is still leading in most of the swing states. Besides, in the case of states such as Iowa, Ohio, and Texas, where Trump won big in 2016, the situation is worse than in the past as the winning margin between him and Biden is closer compared to that with Hillary Clinton’s in 2016. Currently, polls taken by both CNN (a press with liberal views) and Fox News (a press with conservative views) state Biden is leading over Trump. Of course, these results can be a déjà-vu of the survey errors in the 2016 election when many pollsters couldn’t spot Trump’s hidden advantage in some key battleground states until late in the race. Maybe the upcoming election is more complicated than the last one, considering the uncertainty stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic we are facing right now. Thus, it’s important for us not to blindly trust the numbers. Skepticism is essential.

The following explains the presidential election process of the U.S., key factors of each candidate’s election pledges in terms of five major categories (economy, foreign relations, immigration, healthcare, and environment), and why the world is focusing on the election result.

The Presidential Election Process of the U.S.

The United States has (practically) a two-party political system including the Democratic Party and the Republican Party that have an overwhelming majority of the seats in Congress. Also, the federal and state governments under the federalist system of the U.S. have their own leaders and laws, compared to the centralism of South Korea’s government.

The race starts with the election of the delegates of each state. They are nominated through preliminary elections named caucus and primary. A caucus, a closed and discussion-included election opened only to the members of the party, is different from a primary, an anonymous vote that is opened to the public. The Tuesday around the end of February or the beginning of March (3^rd of March this year) is called “Super Tuesday” because delegates of 14 states are elected on this single day. Also, the competition is very fierce, especially at the Iowa caucus, which goes off first in the year, as candidates can get in the media spotlights and gain a large sum of political donations.

Next, national conventions of both the Democratic and Republican Party begin. A national convention is a nation-wide rally in which each party makes election promises, officially nominates candidates for both president and vice president, and listens to their speeches and future visions. This year’s conventions were delayed to the end of August due to the COVID-19 outbreak and held as a form of online conference. As for the Democratic Party, Joe Biden, the former Vice President under the Obama administration became the nominee, as Bernie Sanders, who was a competitive rival against Mr. Biden, dropped out of the race in April, declaring to endorse his ex-competitor for the victory of the Democratic Party. In the case of the Republican Party, the candidate was already fixed after the current president Donald Trump decided to run for a second term.

As the number of voters who will not go to the poll station increased, many states adopted a mail-in ballot system instead of an absentee ballot, which led about 65.28 million postal votes.

The problem is the political stance of each party regarding the mail-in ballot system. Throughout the history of America, the Democrats have supported the implementation of this system while the Republicans haven’t. This is not because the supporters of the Democratic Party are afraid of the virus infection but because the majority of the underprivileged, such as undocumented immigrants or low-income households, could not make their way to their designated polling station because of a lack of time and convenient transportation system. Plus, the intricate identification process that requires an address, driver’s license (or other accepted photo ID), and social security number made it harder for the poor to vote. In this respect, Trump doubts the credibility of this method, pointing out the possible delay of ballot counting, or the increased number of invalid votes might cause a significant impact in swing states vote results.

After the second and third debates ended, votes for the electoral college began on November 3. Since the next president can be seen to be decided through this vote, this “Super Tuesday” is usually deemed as the actual presidential election day. It’s because unlike Korea where all people have equal value of a single vote under a direct election system, voters elect electors whom they delegate their voting rights to for the election. There’s even a “winner takes all” system aspect to the U.S. election. In California, where there are 55 electoral votes, a candidate who gets even one more vote than his/her rival takes all 55 votes. Because of this interesting system, a candidate can win from the total number of the votes but still cannot be elected as president. In the 2000 presidential election, Al Gore outnumbered George W. Bush in the total number of popular votes by about 500,000 but failed to win the election due to the lack of necessary electoral college votes needed (267, compared to Bush’s 271). There are 538 electors in total, and whomever secures more than 270 votes is elected president.

Where Trump and Biden Stand on Major Policy Issues

The two candidates’ election promises are largely compared in terms of economy, foreign relations, immigration, healthcare, and the environment. The chart below demonstrates conflicting issues and their position.

(Graph taken from an article of The Washington Post)

(https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2020/trump-policies-vs-biden-policies/)

Why We Should Focus on the 2020 U.S. Election

For Americans, the election determines the identity of the U.S. for the next four years. Under the slogan MAGA (Make America Great Again) and KAG (Keep America Great), Trump claims an America First stance with his white working class and Shy Trump supporters, also known as a “silent majority.” On the other hand, by making black, female politician Kamala Harris his running mate and increasing diversity in his election camp, Biden emphasizes cultural and ethnic diversity in America.

For the rest of the world, who the president will be determines America’s attitude towards international cooperation and trade (especially with China). If the Trump administration takes power for another four years, Trump may try to bring China under his control or make a big deal with North Korea because he doesn’t need to consider the time after his last term as a president. However, the scenario of Biden winning the race includes making Affordable Care Act (also known as Obamacare) available nationwide and investing $2 billion in the Green New Deal. Despite the two candidates having conflicting views on many issues, protectionism in international trade is inevitable. To recover from the deep recession caused by COVID-19, both candidates are considering protecting the domestic industry and increasing exports, which entails imposing trade pressure on other countries.

South Korea is also deeply involved in the election result as Korea has been paying the U.S. for the stationing of American troops in the peninsula. The burden is expected be increased if Trump is reelected. He already demanded South Korea to pay $1.38 billion, an increased amount of nearly 50 percent from last year, confidently saying that it is “quite reasonable.” When it comes to the Engagement policy, Trump will likely stick to his top-down approach by meeting with Kim Jong Un directly and seizing the initiative as it was assessed to be effective while Biden would seek a bottom-up approach, empowering his negotiators and pressing North Korea with multilateralism at the same time. This means Biden’s policies may alleviate a certain level of the Korean peninsula’s geopolitical uncertainties but lower the possibility of a dramatic change of the peace regime.

After the Election

Although Biden’s victory is expected as of November 6th securing 264 electors, Trump stated, “the postal vote system is unsafe and susceptible to manipulation” while preparing for numerous lawsuits of invalid votes in the states that he had lost. In Nevada, Michigan, Georgia, and Pennsylvania, the courts already dismissed his case but there are still more left in a few states. In this sense, the turmoil can last for weeks, and if all disputes around the election doesn’t end until December 8, the Representatives can have the power to elect the president. Since the Republican Party is the major party in the 26 states compared with 23 of the Democratic Party, the result can be favorable to Trump. One thing is certain; no matter who becomes the next U.S. president, he has the moral obligation to work hard to overcome the pandemic crisis and contribute to world peace.

Song Hojae  x

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